Appendix 2 — Project Ember appraisal (Shs million)
W1 Contribution per tonne of roasted coffee = selling price 26.4 − green coffee 1.2 × 14.2 (17.04) − other variable costs 3.4 = Shs 5.96 million. The green coffee is valued at its export value less export costs (14.2), the opportunity cost, not the purchase cost of 13.4, because BHC can export all the green coffee it buys.
W2 Excluded: head office overheads (not incremental), depreciation (non-cash; capital allowance tax savings are used instead), the Sidama design fees (sunk, already paid) and interest (a financing cost reflected in the 16% discount rate). The lost warehouse rent of 250 a year is a relevant opportunity cost.
| Year |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
| Sales volume (tonnes) |
1,000 |
1,600 |
2,200 |
2,200 |
2,200 |
2,200 |
| Contribution at Shs 5.96 million a tonne (W1) |
5,960 |
9,536 |
13,112 |
13,112 |
13,112 |
13,112 |
| Less extra fixed costs |
(2,400) |
(2,400) |
(2,400) |
(2,400) |
(2,400) |
(2,400) |
| Less launch marketing |
(1,000) |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
| Less rent given up (opportunity cost) |
(250) |
(250) |
(250) |
(250) |
(250) |
(250) |
| Net contribution |
2,310 |
6,886 |
10,462 |
10,462 |
10,462 |
10,462 |
| Tax at 30% |
(693) |
(2,066) |
(3,139) |
(3,139) |
(3,139) |
(3,139) |
| Tax saving on capital allowances |
1,560 |
1,101 |
780 |
555 |
397 |
287 |
| Working capital and residual value |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
6,500 |
| Net cash flow |
3,177 |
5,921 |
8,103 |
7,878 |
7,720 |
14,110 |
| Present value at 16% |
2,739 |
4,399 |
5,194 |
4,349 |
3,675 |
5,785 |
Year by year, the net cash flows are 3,177; 5,921; 8,103; 7,878; 7,720 and 14,110. Total present value = 26,141. Investment at time 0 = 17,000 + 2,000 + 3,000 = 22,000. NPV = 26,141 − 22,000 = 4,141, positive.
W3 Payback: cumulative cash flow after year 3 = 3,177 + 5,921 + 8,103 = 17,201; 22,000 − 17,201 = 4,799 / 7,878 = 0.61, so payback is about 3.6 years.
W4 Sensitivity to volume. Present value of after-tax contribution = 0.7 × (5,960 × 0.862 + 9,536 × 0.743 + 13,112 × (0.641 + 0.552 + 0.476 + 0.410)) = 27,638. Sensitivity = 4,141 / 27,638 = 15.0%: a fall of 15.0% in volume in every year removes the NPV.
W5 Pro forma borrowings to equity (Appendix 5 method; borrowings at 30 June 2026 = 9,000 + 21,500 = 30,500; equity 37,810). Options 1 and 2: (30,500 + 22,000) / 37,810 = 138.9%. Option 3: 30,500 / (37,810 + 22,000) = 51.0%. Combination of Shs 8,000 million of shares and Shs 14,000 million of dollar borrowing: 44,500 / 45,810 = 97.1%.
W6 Expected shilling cost of the dollar loan = 1.085 × 1.035 − 1 = 12.3%, against 17.0% for the shilling loan.
W7 Control. Option 3: new shares 22,000 / 88,000 = 25.0%; Savanna 20% × 75% + 25.0% = 40.0%; family 45.0%. Combination: Savanna (13,200 + 8,000) / 74,000 = 28.6%; family 60% × 66,000 / 74,000 = 53.5%.
Section 4 — Is Ember worth doing, and how should it be paid for?
Value. On a net contribution basis Ember adds about Shs 4,141 million of value and pays back in about 3.6 years. The margin of safety is reasonable: volume could fall by 15.0% before the NPV disappears, but the ramp-up to 2,200 tonnes is untested and the green coffee value moves with world prices, so the contribution could shrink when export prices rise. Using the purchase cost of 13.4 instead of the export value would overstate contribution to 6.92 a tonne and the project's value.
Option 1: Sango Bay shilling loan. Borrowings would rise to 138.9% of equity, breaching the 100% covenant, at the highest cost (17.0%), with repayments from year 1 during the ramp-up.
Option 2: Afro-Mediterranean dollar loan. It is cheaper (about 12.3% in shillings) and the two-year grace suits the ramp-up. BHC's dollar export income gives a natural hedge for repayments. But it also gives 138.9%, needs Sango Bay's consent and pledges export proceeds.
Option 3: Savanna shares. Gearing falls to 51.0% and there is no interest, but Savanna would hold 40.0% and the family only 45.0%, so the family loses its majority, which it has said it will not accept.
Funding. On balance we recommend the combination: Shs 8,000 million of new shares from Savanna and Shs 14,000 million borrowed in dollars from the Afro-Mediterranean Trade Bank. Borrowings would be 97.1% of equity, just inside the covenant, the family would keep 53.5%, and dollar repayments would be matched by export income. This is subject to Sango Bay's written consent, a currency policy covering the loan repayments and tight control of crop finance, because the headroom under the covenant is small.
Conclusion. Ember creates value; the board should approve it on the mixed share and dollar-loan basis and with the safeguards set out here.
Pitfall to avoid. Case study examiners often see candidates discount the consultants' profit figures, depreciation, allocated overheads, sunk fees and interest included. Start instead from net contribution (tonnes sold × contribution per tonne, less the extra fixed costs), price the green coffee at what it would earn if exported, and only then discount.
📋 Objective: 1.2 (Financial planning and management)