Net present value of Product M4 (nominal terms, $)
| Year |
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
| Sales revenue (W1) |
|
3,300,120 |
4,532,165 |
5,446,151 |
4,006,811 |
| Variable costs (W2) |
|
(2,163,150) |
(3,013,989) |
(3,674,555) |
(2,742,793) |
| Fixed costs (W3) |
|
(420,000) |
(441,000) |
(463,050) |
(486,203) |
| Taxable operating cash flow |
|
716,970 |
1,077,176 |
1,308,546 |
777,815 |
| Tax at 25% |
|
(179,243) |
(269,294) |
(327,137) |
(194,454) |
| Tax benefit of tax-allowable depreciation (W4) |
|
130,000 |
104,000 |
83,200 |
207,800 |
| Investment and scrap value |
(2,600,000) |
|
|
|
500,000 |
| Net cash flow |
(2,600,000) |
667,727 |
911,882 |
1,064,609 |
1,291,161 |
| Discount factor at 13% |
1.000 |
0.885 |
0.783 |
0.693 |
0.613 |
| Present value |
(2,600,000) |
590,938 |
714,004 |
737,774 |
791,482 |
NPV = $234,198 (about $234,200; 234,199 if the lines are not rounded) (the sum of the present values less the initial investment).
W1 Sales revenue: year 1 = 9,000 panels x $356 x 1.03 = $3,300,120; year 2 = 12,000 x $356 x 1.03² = $4,532,165; year 3 = 14,000 x $356 x 1.03³ = $5,446,151; year 4 = 10,000 x $356 x 1.03⁴ = $4,006,811.
W2 Variable costs: year 1 = 9,000 x $230 x 1.045 = $2,163,150, then $3,013,989, $3,674,555 and $2,742,793 using 1.045 raised to the power of the year.
W3 Fixed costs: $400,000 x 1.05 = $420,000 in year 1, then $441,000, $463,050 and $486,203.
W4 Tax-allowable depreciation: year 1 claim 20% x $2,600,000 = $520,000, a tax benefit of $130,000; year 2 claim $416,000, benefit $104,000; year 3 claim $332,800, benefit $83,200. The tax written-down value at the end of year 3 is $1,331,200, so the balancing allowance in year 4 is $1,331,200 - $500,000 = $831,200, a tax benefit of $207,800. Tax in year 1 = 25% x $716,970 = $179,243 (179,242.5 before rounding, so 179,242 if rounded down).
Advice: the project has a positive NPV of $234,198, so it earns more than the 13% cost of capital and the company should accept it, because it is expected to increase shareholder wealth. The NPV is only about 9% of the investment, so the board should test the forecasts of price and demand before it commits.
📋 Objective: 4.2 (Inflation and taxation in DCF (D2))